The Theory
There are several marketing industry gurus who champion the approach of marketing to ‘influencers’ to build a brand or ignite an idea through social marketing or business networking. The premise is that some individuals in our society have more power than others. This we can all agree on. And, yes, there are those with strong networks who are activists in one way or another (e.g., in the community, in business, politically, socially). Opinion leaders, another way to refer to them, are generally respected by the people in their network and often emulated. Among those championing the influencers are Malcolm Gladwell, the well-known author of The Tipping Point, Blink and other widely read books about business and society, and Ed Keller and Jon Berry, who co-authored the best-selling book, The Influentials.
The idea is that when these special people take notice of or start using a new product, service, or approach, others will follow. The underlying attractiveness here is that targeting will improve marketing efficiency and effectiveness and reduce promotional costs considerably. There is a strong logical underpinning to this theory. Just go to LinkedIn and other online networks and find the people who are well-connected. We can all remember the most popular students in junior high and high school. Hang out near a movie theater, diner or mall for awhile and watch how teens dress and look (alike). Marketers theorize that if they can grab the attention of these special teens or adults, they’ve gotten a head start on establishing a trend. There is an intriguing video from a 2001 PBS Frontline broadcast Merchants of Cool that I’ve used in my marketing and research classes. The program focuses on the challenges of conducting research among the most hip young teens. Even if marketers are successful in reaching and understanding them, there is a catch-22. Once these teens adopt something new, others follow, the newness wears off the product and it moves into the mainstream (increasing market share); yet, the very fact that this has reached a broader audience is reason enough for these hipsters to drop it and move on to the next new cutting edge thing. The target keeps moving.
The Challenger
So, where does the ‘…or Not’ in the title of this entry fit in? Well, this concept has its detractors. One researcher, Duncan Watts, has been working with colleagues to set up experiments to disprove the theory that influencers who can start a trend can be identified. He’s also studied how trends gain momentum. His approach is to use a series of models to simulate various scenarios. In the February 2008 Fast Company magazine article Is The Tipping Point Toast? by Clive Thompson ( www.fastcompany.com/magazine/122/is-the-tipping-point-toast.html?page=1%2C3) , Clive focuses on Watts and his research about this theory. Watts is a network-theory scientist who was on a sabbatical from ColumbiaUniversity at the time this article was written. He challenges Gladwell and other proponents of influencers on the grounds that the proponents have not explicitly demonstrated how this social phenomenon actually happens. Duncan Watts says proponents have not proven their hypothesis. More detailed information can be found online (http://cdg.columbia.edu/uploads/papers/watts2007_influentials.pdf) in a paper entitled Influentials, Networks, and Public Opinion Formation which was published in the Journal of Consumer Research (in press, December 2007). The authors are Duncan J. Watts and Peter Sheridan Dodds.
Watts acknowledges that some people have more influence than others. According to Watts and based on his modeling, the people who actually spread the word about something new are merely ‘accidental influencers.’
In other words, while a number of people did have a positive impact on increasing the adoption of a new product, there is no way to predict ahead of time specifically who these individuals will be. Thus, the typical ‘screener’ that a marketing researcher would use to find people with influence would not effectively have identified these accidental influencers. Watts also feels that when products gain popularity, this mainly happens because society was just ready for this new thing to come along—sort of like catching a wave. But, the real question is which wave?
If Watts is right, then marketers cannot easily identify which individuals will start a new trend or help to increase market share for a new brand, service or product. This is unnerving to many in the marketing community who have sought to gain acceptance for their product primarily from those with influence and have decreased or eliminated their advertising budget. The financial repercussions here could be huge.
The Path You’ll Take
How are you building or bolstering your brand and working to increase your market share? Can you afford to hold off advertising? Can you count on finding key influencers and exclusively using non-traditional ways to develop a following? Going with my gut feeling (and years of experience), I would not want to entirely forego advertising or the more traditional ways to market my product. I would not want to depend solely on unpaid spokespersons to build my brand.
While there is no perfect answer, my focus would be on relationship building and collaborating with purveyors of complementary products or services. I would want to conduct some preliminary research to identify key targets. Expenditures would then focus on reaching these targeted market segments. I would also wage a public relations campaign and find ways to get my product or services’ name in the public arena. This is not to say that I would pass up using less traditional means to legitimately get free publicity. If you’ve read my earlier articles, you know that I would advocate using whichever social and business networks are appropriate to call attention to a brand and product. However, while the jury is still out on the power of key influencers, it is better not to put all your ‘promotional eggs’ in one basket.
Pat Lovenhart, Lovenhart Research & Consulting ©